PARIS-. It is expected that United States and China finish 1-2 in the gold medal count and in the overall medal table at the Paris Olympic Games, which open in 100 days.
The medal projection for the United States delegation is 123 in total, including 39 gold medals. China is expected to win 35 gold and 89 overall. Both countries also finished 1-2 in both categories three years ago at the pandemic-delayed Tokyo Olympics.
The forecast was produced by Nielsen’s Gracenote Sports, which performs statistical analysis for sports leagues around the world. It also monitors the main Olympic sports competitions prior to the Games.
Gracenote rankings are based on total medals won, although others focus on total gold medals.
This would be the eighth consecutive time that the United States has won the most total medals at the Olympic Games. In 1992, in Barcelona, the team called Unificado led the total medal table. The athletes who participated were from the former Soviet Union, which had just disintegrated as a sovereign state.
The last time the United States did not lead the gold medal count at the Summer Games was the 2008 edition in Beijing, where China invested heavily and reaped dividends.
Next on the list considering overall and gold totals are: Great Britain (66-13), France (55-28), Australia (50-13), Japan (49-13), Italy (47-12), Netherlands ( 38-18), Germany (36-9), South Korea (24-9).
The next 10 are: Canada (22-6), Spain (20-5), Hungary (19-5), Brazil (18-9), Turkey (13-4), Ethiopia (13-3), Uzbekistan (13 -3), Ukraine (13-3), Georgia (12-3) and Denmark (11-5).
Host countries always record an increase in medal wins, and France is expected to take a big one and increase its overall total from the 33 it achieved in Tokyo. It is predicted to triple its production of gold medals from those obtained in Tokyo, where Japan obtained a record haul.
Competing at home represents an advantage, in part because host countries invest more in athlete training. Plus, of course, there is the local public who supports their athletes.
France will be represented in 25 different sports in Paris, well above its average in the last Olympic Games of between 15 and 19, according to Gracenote analysis.
The unknown is the presence of Russian and, to a lesser extent, Belarusian athletes. They have been absent from most international competitions in the last two years due to the war in Ukraine. It is difficult to take into account its influence on the prognosis, Gracenote acknowledges.
“It looks like there will be limited participation of these (Russian and Belarusian) athletes,” Gracenote commented. She said she hopes her predictions are accurate “based on the data we have.”
Russia and Belarus are banned from participating in team sports at the Olympics because of the war in Ukraine and the International Olympic Committee has established a two-step vetting procedure for individual athletes from those countries to obtain neutral status.
Those athletes must first be approved by the governing body of their individual sport and then by a review panel appointed by the IOC.
Source: AP
